INDIA, April 23, 2015 (Economic Times by Sadanand Dhume): Is India’s overwhelming Hindu majority shrinking? A recent survey by the Pew Research Center echoes news reports based on leaked figures from the 2011 census. For the first time since independence in 1947, fewer than four in five Indians self-identifies as a Hindu. The Pew survey suggests a more nuanced picture than the overheated rhetoric that grabs the headlines. With fertility rates comfortably above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, in absolute terms India’s Hindu population is growing, not declining. Over the next 35 years, it will swell by over 300 million people to total nearly 1.3 billion.
In relative terms, however, these numbers suggest a gentle but steady decline compared to other faiths. In 1951, not long after the ravages of Partition, India was about 85% Hindu. By 2050 it will be 77 per cent Hindu. Most of the change in India can be explained by a sharp projected uptick in the Muslim population thanks to higher fertility rates. The average Indian Muslim woman bears 3.2 children; the average Hindu has 2.5 children. Over the next 35 years, Muslims in India will swell to about 311 million, or more than 18 per cent of the population, up from their current 14 per cent share. The survey predicts that by 2050, India will house the world’s largest Muslim population, ahead of Indonesia and Pakistan.
India will need to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, rancor or wild policy suggestions. Over the coming decades, India’s changing religious demographics will likely upend politics as we know it, particularly in states with large Muslim populations such as West Bengal and Assam. To understand what these changes mean, India’s public square needs to host a debate that reflects neither the apathy of the Left nor the shrillness of the extreme Right. This means talking about aggregate trends without losing sight of individual rights. Only then can the country confidently come to terms with its changing demographic future.
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